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  1. Return-path: <ota+space.mail-errors@andrew.cmu.edu>
  2. X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson
  3. Received: from beak.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests)
  4.           ID </afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr1/ota/Mailbox/wbK:w2S00VcJ09BE4A>;
  5.           Sun,  2 Dec 1990 02:36:35 -0500 (EST)
  6. Message-ID: <MbK-vUu00VcJI9=U5D@andrew.cmu.edu>
  7. Precedence: junk
  8. Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
  9. From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
  10. To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU
  11. Date: Sun,  2 Dec 1990 02:36:02 -0500 (EST)
  12. Subject: SPACE Digest V12 #609
  13.  
  14. SPACE Digest                                     Volume 12 : Issue 609
  15.  
  16. Today's Topics:
  17.         SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW
  18.  
  19. Administrivia:
  20.  
  21.     Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to
  22.   space+@andrew.cmu.edu.  Other mail, esp. [un]subscription notices,
  23.   should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to
  24.              tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu
  25.  
  26. ----------------------------------------------------------------------
  27.  
  28. Date:    Sun, 25 Nov 90 15:28:19 MST
  29. From: std_oler%HG.ULeth.CA@vma.cc.cmu.edu (Cary Oler)
  30. Subject: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW
  31. X-St-Vmsmail-To: ST%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu"
  32.  
  33. /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
  34.  
  35. Please Note:
  36.  
  37.      A few modifications have been made to these reports.  In addition to
  38. the new 20-day solar flux forecasts, new prediction charts have been added
  39. for potential VHF DX propagation.  Included with the VHF DX propagation
  40. prediction charts are SID and auroral backscatter enhancement predictions
  41. charts.  Comments regarding the inclusion/removal of these new features are
  42. welcomed.  In order to keep the size of these reports down, some of the
  43. extraneous information has been removed.
  44.  
  45.      An informational document is being prepared to aid those who are
  46. interested in understanding and using these reports in practical
  47. applications.  To obtain this file, request the document "Understanding
  48. Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
  49.  
  50. /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
  51.  
  52.  
  53.                 ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
  54.                        November 24 to December 04, 1990
  55.  
  56.                 Report Based In-Part from Data Obtained from the
  57.                        Space Environment Services Center
  58.                                Boulder Colorado
  59.  
  60.                                    --------
  61.  
  62.  
  63. SOLAR TERRESTRIAL REVIEW FOR 18 NOVEMBER TO 24 NOVEMBER.
  64.  
  65.      Solar activity over the last week was mostly moderate.  Numerous M-class
  66. flare's occurred throughout the week.  Almost all of the activity was
  67. attributed to Region 6368, which dominated the disk with its large size and
  68. magnetic complexity.
  69.  
  70.      Region 6368 attained a maximum size of 9,240 million square kilometers
  71. (3,610 million square miles) on 18 November, encompassing a total of 107
  72. spots.  It is a magnetically complex Beta-Gamma-Delta region.  The trailer
  73. spot complex was most active and has consistently held a delta-configuration.
  74. This region was uncharacteristically inactive considering the size and
  75. magnetic complexity that it attained.  No major flares occurred from this
  76. region, although warnings were issued earlier in the week regarding the
  77. potential developement of major flare activity.
  78.  
  79.      Region 6368 showed signs of decay on 20 November although it continued
  80. to produce a healthy barrage of C-class and occassional M-class flares.  The
  81. largest flare from this region was a class M3.5/1N at 09:54 UT on 19
  82. November.  This region was believed responsible for producing a Type II sweep
  83. between 13:46 UT and 13:49 UT on 18 November.  The estimated shock velocity
  84. was 1,000 km/sec.  No terrestrial impacts occurred from this event.
  85.  
  86.      Region 6368 has continued a very gradual decay since 20 November,
  87. maintaining a complex delta configuration in the trailing spot group.  It has
  88. also continued frequent subflaring with modest amounts of C-class flaring.
  89. M-class flares have dropped in frequency since 20 November.
  90.  
  91.      Region 6377 (S04W01) has developed rapidly over the past 24 hours and
  92. managed to produce a healthy class M3.1/1B Tenflare at 14:25 UT on 24 November.
  93. Other minor discrete radio emissions were observed from this flare.  The
  94. location of this flare was at S04E04.  It lasted 57 minutes, ending at
  95. 15:09 UT on 24 November.  Region 6368 also managed to produce a class M1.2/SF
  96. flare at 23:46 UT on 24 November.  Both of these flares produced a SID/SWF.
  97.  
  98.      Geomagnetic activity was unexpectedly low this week.  Activity was
  99. predicted to be unsettled to active, but maintained almost exclusively quiet
  100. conditions throughout the week.  Effects from a coronal hole never
  101. materialized.  As well, predicted solar activity never reached anticipated
  102. levels and thus did not produce expected terrestrial impacts.
  103.  
  104.      Auroral activity likewise did not reach anticipated levels.  Auroral
  105. activity was not visible at middle and low latitudes.  Some higher latitudes
  106. spotted moderate auroral activity on 18 November, but activity dwindled as the
  107. week progressed.
  108.  
  109.      Radio propagation conditions were normal to above normal this week.
  110. Relatively strong and stable signals occurred throughout the week at low and
  111. middle latitudes due to the unexpectedly quiet geomagnetic and auroral
  112. activity.  Some increased levels of noise were evident on 18 November due to
  113. subsiding geomagnetic activity over higher latitudes.  There were numerous
  114. short wave fades (SWFs) throughout the week, all attributed to the M-class
  115. flare activity from Region 6368.  None of the SWF's were intense.
  116. The majority of frequencies affected were below 10 MHz.  It is not known
  117. whether the SWF's were accompanied by VHF enhancements. Ionization levels
  118. were likely not high enough to produce any significant VHF signal
  119. enhancements, although there were probably localized area's of enhanced
  120. sporadic E during these periods.
  121.  
  122.      As of 25 November, two additional SID/SWF's were observed.  The first
  123. began at 14:12 UT and ended at 15:05 UT on 24 November.  The second began at
  124. 23:30 UT and ended at 00:31 UT on 25 November.  Both of these events were of
  125. low to moderate intensity and were flare-related.
  126.  
  127.  
  128. SHORT TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST
  129.  
  130.      Solar activity is expected to remain mostly low with the possibility for
  131. occassional M-class flaring from departing Region 6368 and Region 6377.  The
  132. Space Environment Services Center is continuing a condition YELLOW alert
  133. status for potential PCA and proton events.  Region 6368 continues to sport a
  134. Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration with particular delta complexity in
  135. the trailer spot group.  Probability for a major class X flare is stationary
  136. at 10% over the next two days, dropping to 5% on 27 November with the passage
  137. of Region 6368 beyond the west limb.  There is a 5% probability of a major
  138. proton flare from this region.  Although these probabilities are low, they
  139. warrant attention.  The solar flux is expected to drop quite dramatically with
  140. the passage of Region 6368 beyond the west limb on 26 and 27 November.
  141.  
  142.      Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly quiet until 26
  143. November when models suggest activity should increase to unsettled levels
  144. over all latitudes with a risk of active periods over middle and high
  145. latitude regions.  No significant activity or storming is expected, however.
  146. Conditions should return to quiet to unsettled levels by 28 November.
  147.  
  148.      Auroral activity will be dormant until near 26 November when some
  149. increase in activity may occur.  Activity will remain confined to the high
  150. latitude regions where it is expected to be mostly of low intensity with
  151. possible bursts of moderate activity.  Auroral activity is then expected to
  152. decline to non-visible levels on 27/28 November and remain quiet throughout
  153. the remainder of the week.
  154.  
  155.      HF radio propagation conditions should be quite good this week, with
  156. only a slight increase in noise and flutter expected near 26/27 November.  The
  157. expected increase in geomagnetic and auroral activity should not have much
  158. of an impact on HF radio communications.  So with the exception of 26 and
  159. 27 November, HF communications should be above normal on most of the other
  160. days this week.  Sporadic degraded HF propagation is possible on the sunlit
  161. side of the earth due to expected persisting SIDs/SWFs caused by minor solar
  162. flaring.
  163.  
  164.      VHF radio propagation should remain normal this week.  There is the
  165. potential for sporadic DX contacts during SID periods which are expected to
  166. occur on the sunlit hemisphere of the earth this week due to minor flaring
  167. from departing Region 6368 and Region 6377.  Other than these slight
  168. possibilities, conditions will not be sufficient to provide widespread
  169. DX opportunities this week.
  170.  
  171.  
  172. SUMMARY OF ALL ACTIVE REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR DISK AS OF 25 NOVEMBER
  173.  
  174. Region #   Location   LO   Area   Class   LL    Spots     Magnetic Type
  175. --------   --------  ---   ----   -----   --    -----     -------------
  176.   6368      N18W65   025   5460    FKI    23     045     BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
  177.   6372      S18W27   347   0120    HAX    02     002     ALPHA
  178.   6376      S17W82   042   0000    AXX    00     001     ALPHA
  179.   6377      S04W01   321   0540    DAI    09     030     BETA
  180.   6378      S09E11   309   0030    BXO    04     004     BETA
  181.   6379      S06E59   261   0180    CSO    06     006     BETA
  182.   6380      S07W11   331   0000    AXX    00     001     ALPHA
  183.   6381      S04E73   247   0150    HAX    02     001     ALPHA
  184.  
  185. NOTES:  Area is in million square kilometers.  Angular extent (LL) and solar
  186. longitude (LO) are in degree's.  For more information regarding the terminology
  187. used above, request the Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms from:
  188. "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
  189.  
  190.  
  191. H-ALPHA PLAGES WITHOUT SPOTS.  LOCATIONS VALID AS OF 24:00 UT ON 24 NOVEMBER.
  192.  
  193. REGION           LOCATION            LO             COMMENTS (IF ANY)
  194. ------           --------            ---      -------------------------------
  195. 6375              N25W42             002      NONE
  196.  
  197.  
  198. ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN BETWEEN 25 AND 27 NOVEMBER
  199.  
  200. Region   Latitude  Longitude (Helio.)
  201. ------   --------  ---------
  202.  6355      N17        223
  203.  6347      S18        216
  204.  6350      S24        213
  205.  6349      S16        198
  206.  
  207. NOTES:
  208.        For definitions regarding the above, request the "Glossary of Solar
  209. Terrestrial Terms" from "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
  210.  
  211.  
  212.  
  213. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RECENT GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY - BOULDER COLORADO
  214.  
  215.                   Cumulative Geomagnetic Activity History
  216.              Peak Geomagnetic Activity during the past 87 hours
  217.      _________________________________________________________________
  218.     |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |        |        |        |     | VERY HIGH! |
  219.     | VERY SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |     | HIGH       |
  220.     |      SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |     | MODERATE   |
  221.     |       MAJOR STORM |        |        |        |     | MODERATE   |
  222.     |       MINOR STORM |        |        |        |     | LOW        |
  223.     |       VERY ACTIVE |        |        |        |     | NONE - LOW |
  224.     |            ACTIVE |        |        |        |     | NONE       |
  225.     |         UNSETTLED |     *  |   *  **|        |  * *| NONE       |
  226.     |             QUIET |     ***|* ******|*     **|*****| NONE       |
  227.     |        VERY QUIET |********|********|********|*****| NONE       |
  228.     |-------------------|--------|--------|--------|-----|------------|
  229.     | Geomagnetic Field |  Thu.  |  Fri.  |  Sat.  | Sun.|  Anomaly   |
  230.     |    Conditions     |    Given in 3-hour intervals   | Intensity  |
  231.     |_________________________________________________________________|
  232.  
  233. NOTES:
  234.        This graph ONLY depicts geomagnetic conditions observed at Boulder,
  235. Colorado for the past 87 hours.  Conditions to the north of Boulder will
  236. generally have slightly higher activity than Boulder, while conditions to the
  237. south of Boulder will likely have lower activity than those depicted here.
  238. However, the plots should present a good approximate average of planetary
  239. geomagnetic conditions.
  240.        For information regarding the interpretation and/or use of these charts,
  241. send a request for the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to:
  242. std_oler@hg.uleth.ca
  243.  
  244.  
  245. PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (25 NOVEMBER - 04 DECEMBER)
  246.  
  247.     ________________________________________________________________________
  248.    |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | VERY HIGH! |
  249.    | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
  250.    |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
  251.    |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
  252.    |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
  253.    |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE - LOW |
  254.    |            ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
  255.    |         UNSETTLED |   |***|***| * |   |   |   | * | * |***| NONE       |
  256.    |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
  257.    |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
  258.    |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
  259.    | Geomagnetic Field |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|  Anomaly   |
  260.    |    Conditions     |       Given in 8-hour intervals       | Intensity  |
  261.    |________________________________________________________________________|
  262.  
  263. NOTES:
  264.        Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena.
  265. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in
  266. excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from the
  267. predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.
  268.  
  269.  
  270. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS
  271.  
  272.                    Cumulative Graphical Analysis of
  273.                            Solar Activity
  274.     ____________________________________________________________
  275. 242|                                                            | MOD.
  276. 235|  F = Major Flare(s)                                        | MOD.
  277. 227|                  *                                         | MOD.
  278. 220|                 ***  *                            *        | MOD.
  279. 212|                 ***  *                  **      * *        | MOD.
  280. 205|                ****  *                  **      ***        | MOD.
  281. 197|              ******  *F                **** *  *****       | MOD.
  282. 190|             **********F                ******* *******     | LOW
  283. 182|       *    ***********F*               ****************    | LOW
  284. 175|      **   ************F*               ******************  | LOW
  285. 167|      *****************F**             *********************| LOW
  286. 160|     ******************F*** * *        *********************| LOW
  287. 152|   ********************F**********    **********************| LOW
  288. 145|***********************F********** * ***********************| LOW
  289. 137|***********************F************************************| LOW
  290. 130|***********************F************************************| LOW
  291.     ------------------------------------------------------------
  292.                Cumulative 60 day Solar Activity Record
  293.                    Start Date:  September 27, 1990
  294.  
  295. NOTES:
  296.        Left-hand column digits represent the 10.7 cm solar radio flux obtained
  297. from Ottawa.  The right-hand column describes the relative solar activity for
  298. that period based on the average number of major and minor flares that can be
  299. expected for related solar flux values.  Plot lines labeled with the letter "F"
  300. represent days where at least one major flare occurred (ie. class M5 or greater
  301. flare).
  302.  
  303.  
  304. GRAPHICAL 20-DAY SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTION
  305.  
  306.                            Solar Activity
  307.  _________________________________________________________________
  308. | 230 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
  309. | 224 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|
  310. | 218 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|
  311. | 212 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|
  312. | 206 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|
  313. | 200 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  314. | 194 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  315. | 188 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  316. | 182 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  317. | 176 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  318. | 170 |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  319. | 164 |**|  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  320. | 158 |**|**|  |  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  321. | 152 |**|**|  |  |  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  322. | 146 |**|**|**|  |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  323. | 140 |**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|**|
  324. |-----|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|
  325. |Solar|25|26|27|28|29|30|01|02|03|04|05|06|07|08|09|10|11|12|13|14|
  326. |Flux |     November    |                 December                |
  327.  -----------------------------------------------------------------
  328.  
  329.  
  330. HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (25 NOVEMBER - 04 DECEMBER)
  331.  
  332.                               High Latitude Paths
  333.             ________________________________________________________
  334.            | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  335.            |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  336.            |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  337.            |           FAIR |* *|   |  *|* *|***|***|***|***|* *|  *|
  338.            |           POOR | * |***|** | * |   |   |   |   | * |** |
  339.            |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  340.            | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  341.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  342.            |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
  343.            |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
  344.             --------------------------------------------------------
  345.  
  346.                              Middle Latitude Paths
  347.             ________________________________________________________
  348.            | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  349.            |      VERY GOOD |* *|   |  *|* *|***|***|***|* *|*  |   |
  350.            |           GOOD | * |***|** | * |   |   |   | * | **|***|
  351.            |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  352.            |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  353.            |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  354.            | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  355.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  356.            |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
  357.            |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
  358.             --------------------------------------------------------
  359.  
  360.                                 Low Latitude Paths
  361.             ________________________________________________________
  362.            | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  363.            |      VERY GOOD |***|* *|* *|***|***|***|***|***|  *|  *|
  364.            |           GOOD |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |** |** |
  365.            |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  366.            |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  367.            |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  368.            | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  369.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  370.            |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
  371.            |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
  372.             --------------------------------------------------------
  373.  
  374. NOTES:
  375.        High latitudes >= 55       degree's north latitude
  376.      Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55  degree's north latitude
  377.         Low latitudes  < 40       degree's north latitude
  378.  
  379.  
  380.  
  381. POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (25 NOVEMBER - 04 DECEMBER)
  382.    INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS
  383.  
  384.                    HIGH LATITUDES
  385.  __________________________________________________      ___________________
  386. |  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
  387. | QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
  388. |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  389. | VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  390. |ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*| | | | | | | |
  391. |    NORMAL|***|  *|  *|***|***|***|***|***| **|  *| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
  392. |BELOW NORM|   |** |** |   |   |   |   |   |*  |** | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  393. | VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  394. |  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  395. |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
  396. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  397. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  398. |      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  399. |      40% |   |* *|* *|   |   |   |   |   |  *|* *| 40%| |*|*| | | | | | |*|
  400. |      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*| | | |*|*|*|
  401. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  402. |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  403. |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
  404. |  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
  405. |__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
  406.  
  407.  
  408.                   MIDDLE LATITUDES
  409.  __________________________________________________      ___________________
  410. |  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
  411. | QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
  412. |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  413. | VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  414. |ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | |
  415. |    NORMAL|***| **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***| **| 40%|*|*| | | | | | | | |
  416. |BELOW NORM|   |*  |*  |   |   |   |   |   |   |*  | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  417. | VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  418. |  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  419. |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
  420. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  421. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  422. |      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  423. |      40% |   |  *|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
  424. |      20% | **|***|***|  *|  *|  *|  *|   |* *|* *| 20%| |*|*| | | | | | |*|
  425. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  426. |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  427. |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
  428. |  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
  429. |__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
  430.  
  431.                     LOW LATITUDES
  432.  __________________________________________________      ___________________
  433. |  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
  434. | QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
  435. |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  436. | VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  437. |ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | | |
  438. |    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*| | | | | | | |
  439. |BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| |*| | | | | | | | |
  440. | VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  441. |  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  442. |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
  443. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  444. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  445. |      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  446. |      40% | **| **|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
  447. |      20% |***|***| **| **| **| **| **|   |   |   | 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
  448. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  449. |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  450. |CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
  451. |  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
  452. |__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
  453.  
  454. NOTES:
  455.       These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 220 MHz
  456. bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
  457. propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
  458. DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
  459. the HF predictions charts.  For more information, request the document
  460. "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
  461.  
  462.  
  463. AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (25 NOVEMBER - 04 DECEMBER)
  464.  
  465.                             High Latitude Locations
  466.             ________________________________________________________
  467.            | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  468.            |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  469.            |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  470.            |       MODERATE |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |
  471.            |            LOW | **|***|***|***|   |   |   | * | * |***|
  472.            |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  473.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  474.            |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
  475.            |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
  476.             --------------------------------------------------------
  477.  
  478.                           Middle Latitude Locations
  479.             ________________________________________________________
  480.            | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  481.            |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  482.            |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  483.            |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  484.            |            LOW |   |***|***|   |   |   |   |   | * |***|
  485.            |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  486.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  487.            |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
  488.            |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
  489.             --------------------------------------------------------
  490.  
  491.                              Low Latitude Locations
  492.             ________________________________________________________
  493.            | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  494.            |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  495.            |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  496.            |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  497.            |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  498.            |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
  499.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  500.            |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
  501.            |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
  502.             --------------------------------------------------------
  503.  
  504. NOTE:
  505.      For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
  506. document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: std_oler@hg.uleth.ca
  507.  
  508.  
  509. **  End of Report  **
  510.  
  511. ------------------------------
  512.  
  513. End of SPACE Digest V12 #609
  514. *******************
  515.